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UBS has upgraded Fortescue Metals Group Ltd from a Sell to a Neutral rating, adjusting the price target to AUD16.70 from AUD17.30 due to the stock trading below its previous target. Despite concerns over iron ore prices and discounts on lower-grade ore, UBS believes these worries are overstated, forecasting prices to stabilize between US$90 and US$100 per tonne over the next five years. The firm has also revised its earnings per share estimates downwards by 3-6% for fiscal years 2025 to 2027, reflecting a cautious outlook while noting Fortescue's strong financial health.
UBS has upgraded Fortescue Metals Group's stock rating to Neutral from Sell, while lowering the target price to AUD 16.70 from AUD 17.30, following a decline in share price. Analysts believe concerns over iron ore prices and discounts on low-grade ore are overstated, despite a slight increase in the discount rate to 16%. UBS has also revised its earnings per share estimates downwards by 3-6% for the financial years 2025 to 2027, reflecting a cautious outlook while acknowledging Fortescue's solid financial position.
The AUD/USD closed lower at 0.6272, influenced by a mixed Australian jobs report, US dollar short covering, and uncertainty surrounding China's stimulus. Key local drivers this week include the Monthly CPI data on Wednesday, with expectations of a slight decline in inflation, and speculation about US tariff specifics ahead of the April 2 deadline, which could support the Australian dollar. If the AUD/USD breaks below 0.6250/30, it may signal a retest of the 0.6087 low.
Morgan Stanley highlights key risks to the Australian sharemarket recovery, including a potential minority government that could slow spending and a shallow easing cycle from the RBA, with only one expected rate cut in May. The Aussie dollar faces pressure from US tariff threats, which could lead to price increases for consumer goods, while sentiment may be negatively impacted despite Australia's relatively modest exposure to tariffs.
Financial markets stabilized last week as tariff concerns eased and major central banks held interest rates steady. The US faces challenges with elevated equity valuations, while the Hang Seng Index struggled to maintain momentum. Key economic indicators, including US Q4 GDP and PCE inflation data, are anticipated this week amid rising stagflation concerns.
UBS' Sydney trading floor, led by Michael Hendrie, handles $3 billion in daily transactions, accounting for 20% of the Australian Securities Exchange's turnover. In this high-pressure environment, traders are trained to perform under stress, likening their work to the intensity of a sports final where crucial decisions can lead to success or failure.
UBS has downgraded South32 from Buy to Neutral, lowering the price target to AUD3.70 from AUD4.00, following a strong performance that outpaced BHP by 20% over the past year. Analysts expressed concerns over long-term growth projects and reduced earnings projections due to rising operational costs, indicating a shift in the company's strategic focus towards organic growth. The stock's valuation now aligns more closely with BHP, suggesting a more balanced risk-reward scenario moving forward.
UBS has downgraded South32 shares from "Buy" to "Neutral," lowering the price target from AUD 4.00 to AUD 3.70. This decision follows a strong performance last year, but concerns about long-term growth projects and reduced earnings forecasts due to rising operating costs have influenced the analysts' outlook. The stock now trades in line with BHP, indicating a more balanced risk/reward scenario for investors.
UBS has downgraded South32 Limited from Buy to Neutral, lowering its price target to AUD 3.70 from AUD 4.00, following a strong performance that saw its shares outperform BHP by 20% over the past year. Analysts emphasized the need for a strategic shift towards organic growth, citing concerns over long-term projects and declining free cash flow yield forecasts. The reassessment of valuation indicates a more balanced risk-return scenario, as South32's shares now trade in line with BHP after historically being at a discount.
The Australia 200 index rose 38 points (0.48%) to 7957, poised for its best close in nearly two weeks, buoyed by supermarket stocks following ACCC findings. The real estate sector also gained amid expectations of an RBA rate cut in May, while the financial sector showed signs of recovery. Gold prices retreated from record highs, and Paladin's uranium operations were suspended due to heavy rainfall.
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